Moody's warns of a 49% chance of a US recession within the next year, potentially rising above 50% due to high oil prices exacerbated by the Iran war. Chief economist Mark Zandi attributes recession fears to weak labor market data and rising energy costs, which could lead to decreased consumer spending and a negative economic cycle. The impact of the Iran conflict may disrupt global energy markets, affecting the US and EU economies. A significant rise in oil prices could push the global economy towards recession.