The European Commission is likely to survive two no-confidence votes in the European Parliament, despite growing discontent with Ursula von der Leyen among MEPs. A motion of censure requires at least 360 votes, a threshold difficult to achieve without support from the centrist coalition. The EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe are expected to reject the motions, although some defections may occur. The outcome will depend on the votes from the Greens and ECR, which are divided on the issue. The political dynamics suggest a complex situation with little chance of successfully toppling the Commission.